How Improbable Was Leicester City’s Premier League Victory?

Everyone is a fan of a big upset and we constantly root for underdogs and Cinderella stories after our teams have been eliminated from contention. It’s why March Madness is such a big draw, even for sports fans who aren’t typically avid college basketball watchers. While we didn’t get a huge underdog story from Villanova (a 2 seed) this year, we certainly got one in the English Premier League.

Manchester City v Leicester City - Premier League

Leicester City, a regular relegation threat, just scored their first Premier League victory in their 132 year existence. To say they were an underdog going into this season is more than an understatement. At 5000-1, there isn’t even close to a modern day equivalent – Auburn was a 300-1 back in 2013 when they won the BCS Championship and UConn was 100-1 when the won the NCAA tourney as an 8 seed in 2014. If you wanted to bet on the Cleveland Browns, the team with the longest odds for Super Bowl 51, you could get them at somewhere around 200-1 right now.

To calculate just how improbable Leicester City’s run was, we had to break down parlay odds for potential upcoming championship games. For these to pay out, each team would have to win their respective conference and meet in the finals. If a person was to bet on the exact matchup for any of the following championship games┬ábefore the season, they still wouldn’t see the same payout as LCFC backers did.

2016 World Series: Oakland A’s vs. Atlanta Braves – 4140/1
2016 NBA Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 3130/1
2016 Stanley Cup Finals: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Arizona Coyotes – 3720/1
Super Bowl 51: Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers – 2500/1

Safe to say some of those bookmakers will revise their odds for the bottom of the table next season.